Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 17,898
2 New Jersey 16,066
3 Massachusetts 11,923
4 Rhode Island 11,342
5 Connecticut 9,947
6 District of Columbia 9,544
7 Delaware 7,417
8 Louisiana 7,203
9 Illinois 6,950
10 Maryland 5,958
11 Michigan 4,955
12 Pennsylvania 4,933
13 Nebraska 4,867
14 Iowa 4,334
15 South Dakota 4,286
16 Indiana 3,955
17 Colorado 3,614
18 Mississippi 3,522
19 Virginia 3,258
20 Georgia 3,242
21 Kansas 2,632
22 New Mexico 2,624
23 Washington 2,490
24 New Hampshire 2,487
25 Tennessee 2,428
26 Minnesota 2,383
27 Alabama 2,264
28 Ohio 2,255
29 North Dakota 2,246
30 Nevada 2,147
31 Utah 2,108
32 Florida 2,011
33 Wisconsin 1,937
34 California 1,896
35 Arizona 1,741
36 Missouri 1,709
37 Kentucky 1,655
38 South Carolina 1,590
39 North Carolina 1,582
40 Texas 1,557
41 Vermont 1,493
42 Arkansas 1,446
43 Idaho 1,316
44 Oklahoma 1,253
45 Wyoming 1,211
46 Maine 1,164
47 Oregon 824
48 West Virginia 800
49 Puerto Rico 759
50 Alaska 529
51 Hawaii 442
52 Montana 432

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Illinois 235
2 Delaware 225
3 Massachusetts 179
4 Rhode Island 178
5 District of Columbia 163
6 Connecticut 158
7 Nebraska 144
8 Maryland 139
9 Iowa 137
10 Louisiana 120
11 Virginia 107
12 New Jersey 103
13 New York 101
14 Minnesota 97
15 Mississippi 90
16 North Dakota 84
17 Indiana 73
18 New Mexico 68
19 Pennsylvania 67
20 South Dakota 67
21 Michigan 65
22 Alabama 63
23 Georgia 61
24 Arizona 59
25 Colorado 59
26 Kansas 58
27 Tennessee 56
28 New Hampshire 54
29 Kentucky 51
30 Nevada 49
31 Wisconsin 49
32 North Carolina 48
33 Texas 48
34 California 45
35 Ohio 44
36 Utah 41
37 Arkansas 35
38 Florida 34
39 Oklahoma 29
40 Washington 29
41 Maine 25
42 Missouri 25
43 South Carolina 25
44 Wyoming 18
45 Puerto Rico 17
46 Idaho 16
47 Oregon 15
48 West Virginia 12
49 Alaska 3
50 Vermont 3
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,419
2 New Jersey 1,119
3 Connecticut 902
4 Massachusetts 795
5 District of Columbia 507
6 Louisiana 505
7 Michigan 479
8 Rhode Island 441
9 Pennsylvania 335
10 Illinois 311
11 Maryland 308
12 Delaware 267
13 Indiana 244
14 Colorado 189
15 Mississippi 161
16 Georgia 143
17 Ohio 131
18 Washington 130
19 Minnesota 119
20 New Mexico 115
21 New Hampshire 111
22 Virginia 111
23 Nevada 110
24 Iowa 100
25 Alabama 96
26 Missouri 92
27 Florida 87
28 Arizona 85
29 Vermont 84
30 California 76
31 Kentucky 76
32 Wisconsin 74
33 South Carolina 72
34 Oklahoma 71
35 Kansas 62
36 Nebraska 61
37 North Carolina 60
38 North Dakota 52
39 Maine 51
40 South Dakota 48
41 Texas 43
42 Tennessee 41
43 Idaho 40
44 Puerto Rico 36
45 West Virginia 34
46 Arkansas 32
47 Oregon 32
48 Utah 23
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 23
2 Connecticut 19
3 Massachusetts 18
4 District of Columbia 14
5 Illinois 12
6 Delaware 11
7 Pennsylvania 11
8 Rhode Island 11
9 Maryland 10
10 New York 10
11 Louisiana 7
12 Colorado 6
13 Michigan 6
14 Indiana 5
15 Mississippi 5
16 New Mexico 5
17 Ohio 5
18 Alabama 4
19 Iowa 4
20 Minnesota 4
21 New Hampshire 4
22 Virginia 4
23 Arizona 3
24 Georgia 3
25 Nebraska 3
26 South Dakota 3
27 Florida 2
28 Missouri 2
29 Nevada 2
30 California 1
31 Kentucky 1
32 North Carolina 1
33 North Dakota 1
34 South Carolina 1
35 Tennessee 1
36 Texas 1
37 Washington 1
38 Wisconsin 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Arkansas 0
41 Hawaii 0
42 Idaho 0
43 Kansas 0
44 Maine 0
45 Montana 0
46 Oklahoma 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 122,474 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 74,503 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 72,865 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 60,983 4 99
Lake Tennessee 57,155 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 5,603 247 92
Richland South Carolina 2,838 582 81
Pierce Washington 1,938 842 73
Orange California 1,267 1170 62
York South Carolina 968 1426 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 3,098 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,813 2 99
Early Georgia 2,748 3 99
Essex New Jersey 1,872 4 99
Nassau New York 1,831 5 99
Richland South Carolina 144 483 84
Pierce Washington 72 798 74
Davidson Tennessee 61 898 71
Orange California 25 1283 59
York South Carolina 18 1414 54

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons